← Where the supply chain is broken, and where knowledge is missing
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The midstream is invisible
Ore is dug in many countries. Turning it into metal or battery-grade chemicals happens in far fewer. That middle step, smelting and refining, is where supply is most concentrated and where open data is thinnest.
The chart compares concentration at the mine with concentration at the refinery, using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI): the sum of the squared percentage shares of each country. 10,000 means one country does everything. The atlas computes it only where one open source publishes a table by country for both stages, and never mixes two sources in one row. Copper appears twice because both the USGS and the IEA cover it; their definitions differ, so their figures do too.
For gallium, germanium, tungsten and antimony no open source gives both stages by country. The chart leaves those rows incomplete instead of estimating them. And even where the tables exist, the plants behind them are mostly not on the map: see the coverage bars below.
Concentration at the mine and at the refinery
| Material | Year | Mining | Refining | Gap (refining minus mining) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LithiumIEA GCMO 2026 | 2025 | 2 136Australia | 5 722China | +3 586 | |
| CobaltIEA GCMO 2026 | 2025 | 4 546DRC | 5 811China | +1 265 | |
| NickelIEA GCMO 2026 | 2025 | 4 119Indonesia | 3 040Indonesia | -1 079 | |
| CopperUSGS MCS 2026 | 2025 (est.) | 1 036Chile | 2 532China | +1 496 | |
| CopperIEA GCMO 2026 | 2025 | 1 011Chile | 2 359China | +1 348 | |
| GraphiteIEA GCMO 2026 | 2025 | 6 522China | 8 922China | +2 400 | |
| Rare earthsIEA GCMO 2026 | 2025 | 3 842China | 7 009China | +3 167 | |
| GalliumUSGS MCS 2026 | 2025 (est.) | No open mining table by country | 9 804China | – | |
| Germanium | – | No open mining table by country | No open refining data yet | – | |
| TungstenUSGS MCS 2026 | 2025 (est.) | 6 234China | No open refining data yet | – | |
| AntimonyUSGS MCS 2026 | 2025 (est.) | 2 582China | No open refining data yet | – |
How it is computed: HHI of refining minus HHI of mining, for the same year, each computed from the country shares in the source table (sum of squared percentage shares; a lower bound when part of world output is not attributed to a country).
How much of each chain the atlas can see
Four measures per material. A bar shows the share of world output in countries where the atlas has at least one matching record. A dashed box means the measure cannot be computed yet.
Lithium
Mines on record: 82.3% (5/9)
Plants on record: 1.9% (1/6)
Owner or operator known: 60.9% (4/9)
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Known unknowns: Zimbabwe 9.7%, Brazil 4.1%, Mali 3.2%, Portugal 0.1% of world mine output
Cobalt
Mines on record: 78.5% (7/12)
Plants on record: 3.8% (2/6)
Owner or operator known: 78.4% (6/12)
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Known unknowns: Indonesia 14%, Russia 2.4%, Papua New Guinea 0.9%, China 0.6%, Turkey 0.6% of world mine output
Nickel
Mines on record: 89.1% (8/9)
Plants on record: 52.8% (4/7)
Owner or operator known: 22.4% (7/9)
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Known unknowns: China 3.1% of world mine output
Copper
Mines on record: 87% (14/14)
Plants on record: 22.4% (11/17)
Owner or operator known: 82% (11/14)
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Known unknowns: None: every listed producer country has at least one mine on record.
Graphite
Mines on record: 7.4% (4/18)
Plants on record: 0% (0/6)
Owner or operator known: 4.1% (3/18)
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Known unknowns: China 77.8%, Madagascar 4.4%, Tanzania 4.2%, Russia 1.4%, India 0.9%, Korea, North 0.4%, Norway 0.4%, Sri Lanka 0.2%, Turkey 0.1%, Ukraine 0%, Korea, Republic of 0%, Vietnam 0%, Austria 0%, Germany 0% of world mine output
Rare earths
Mines on record: 76.7% (2/12)
Plants on record: 0% (0/5)
Owner or operator known: 7.4% (1/12)
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Known unknowns: United States 13.1%, Burma 5.6%, Thailand 1.2%, India 0.7%, Madagascar 0.7%, Russia 0.7%, Brazil 0.5%, Nigeria 0.4%, Vietnam 0%, Malaysia 0% of world mine output
Gallium
Mines on record: no open mining series by country
Plants on record: 0% (0/3)
Owner or operator known: no open mining series by country
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Germanium
Mines on record: no open mining series by country
Plants on record: no open refining series by country
Owner or operator known: no open mining series by country
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Tungsten
Mines on record: 4.1% (3/11)
Plants on record: no open refining series by country
Owner or operator known: 2% (1/11)
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Known unknowns: China 78.7%, Vietnam 3.5%, Kazakhstan 2.8%, Korea, North 2.3%, Russia 2.3%, Rwanda 1.5%, Austria 1%, Portugal 0.8% of world mine output
Antimony
Mines on record: 9% (5/15)
Plants on record: no open refining series by country
Owner or operator known: 6.3% (4/15)
Assurance known: no public assurance list is ingested yet
Known unknowns: China 36.1%, Russia 28.9%, Tajikistan 19.9%, Burma 4.1%, Kazakhstan 0.7%, Kyrgyzstan 0.6%, Pakistan 0.2%, Vietnam 0.2%, Laos 0.2%, Iran 0.1% of world mine output
Countries that the source lists as producers but where the atlas has no mine on record for that material. They mark missing data, not missing industry.
- Share of world mine production (latest year in the source) that lies in countries where the atlas has at least one mine or brine operation on record for that material.
- Share of world refinery production (latest year) that lies in countries where the atlas has at least one processing plant on record for that material. Not computed where no open refining series exists.
- Share of world mine production (latest year) that lies in countries where at least one facility record for that material names an owner or operator.
- Share of production at sites on a public assurance list. No such list is ingested yet.
What would fix this
- Open, citable tables of refining by country for gallium, germanium, tungsten and antimony. The IEA's outlook covers six materials; for the other four the figures sit in paid reports.
- Processing plants on the map. The USGS regional compilations for Africa, Asia and China would add most of them; they are waiting for a manual download.
- Company and agency reports that name a refinery, its location and its capacity. Each can be added as a sourced record.