← Where the supply chain is broken, and where knowledge is missing
7 / 10
Financing gap and project pipeline
New supply takes years to build, so what is planned today shapes concentration in the 2030s. The question is whether the pipeline is balanced: more mines without more refineries outside the main refining country leave the midstream as concentrated as it is.
The chart compares world output in 2025 with the International Energy Agency's base case for 2030, for mining and for refining, per material. The base case counts existing sites, sites under construction and projects with permits, financing or offtake in place. It is a projection, not a record: every projected figure is marked as an estimate.
The atlas has no project-by-project list yet. The European Union's strategic projects are published as PDF annexes that have to be downloaded by hand, and national announcements are scattered. Until those are entered, this page shows totals only.
World output in 2025 against the IEA base case for 2030
| Material | Stage | 2025 | 2030, projected | Change to 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cobalt | Mining | 320kt Co | 252estimated | −21.2% | |
| Cobalt | Refining | 238kt Co | 295estimated | +23.9% | |
| Copper | Mining | 23 227kt Cu | 24 571estimated | +5.8% | |
| Copper | Refining | 27 955kt Cu | 36 383estimated | +30.1% | |
| Graphite | Mining (natural graphite) | 1 781kt | 2 214estimated | +24.3% | |
| Graphite | Refined battery-grade supply | 2 266kt | 3 356estimated | +48.1% | |
| Lithium | Raw materials | 302kt Li | 540estimated | +78.8% | |
| Lithium | Chemicals | 319kt Li | 544estimated | +70.5% | |
| Nickel | Mining | 4 207kt Ni | 5 098estimated | +21.2% | |
| Nickel | Refining | 3 729kt Ni | 4 231estimated | +13.5% | |
| Rare earths | Mining | 80kt REE | 97estimated | +21.2% | |
| Rare earths | Refining | 89kt REE | 111estimated | +24.7% |
Bars show the projected change to 2030. Solid: mining. Hatched: refining. A projection, marked as an estimate. Change = (projected world output − world output in 2025) ÷ world output in 2025, per stage, from the same IEA table. No IEA table for gallium, germanium, tungsten or antimony, so they have no row.
What the base case counts: IEA base case: production from existing assets and those under construction, along with projects that have a high chance of moving ahead because they have obtained all necessary permits, secured financing and/or established offtake contracts (report, Introduction).
Project-by-project list
Not in the atlas yet. The EU strategic-project annexes are waiting for a manual download.
What would fix this
- The EU's lists of strategic projects, entered project by project with material, stage, country and status. They are on the manual-download list.
- Publicly announced funding for projects (for example from export-credit agencies and development banks), each as a sourced entry with its amount and date.
- Planned and under-construction sites added to the map as their own status, so they can be told apart from operating sites.