Pick a material, a stage and a country, and say by how much its output falls. The tool shows how much of world output goes missing and what every other producer's share of the rest would be.
If refining output of gallium in China fell by 100 %, 99.0 % of world output would be missing.
This is arithmetic on one source table, not a forecast. It leaves out prices, stocks, substitution, new mines and how fast anyone could react.
World output missing
99.0 %
99.0 % share × 100 % cut
The same in the table's unit
900 000 kilograms
Primary production
Increase the other listed countries would need together to make it up
10,000.0 %
Missing output ÷ their combined share today
Concentration of what is left (HHIHerfindahl–Hirschman indexA measure of concentration: the sum of the squared percentage shares of all countries. 10,000 means one country produces everything; below 1,500 is usually called unconcentrated.)
5 556
9 804 before
| Country | Share now | Share after |
|---|---|---|
| Russian Federation | 0.7 % | 66.7 % |
| Japan | 0.3 % | 33.3 % |
| China | 99.0 % | 0.0 % |
None of the largest recorded trade flows of gallium starts in China.
HHI is the sum of squared country shares (10,000 = one country). Where the table leaves part of world output unattributed, it is a lower bound.
Source table: Primary production, 2025
The whole scenario is in the address of this page: copy the link to share or repeat it. Not a forecast and not financial advice.